Estimating Overall and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Methodological Approaches Compared.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality has been reported worldwide, but its magnitude has varied depending on methodological differences that hinder between-study comparability. Our aim was to estimate variability attributable to different methods, focusing on specific causes of death with different pre-pandemic trends. Monthly mortality figures observed in 2020 in the Veneto Region (Italy) were compared with those forecasted using: (1) 2018-2019 monthly average number of deaths; (2) 2015-2019 monthly average age-standardized mortality rates; (3) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models; (4) Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models. We analyzed deaths due to all-causes, circulatory diseases, cancer, and neurologic/mental disorders. Excess all-cause mortality estimates in 2020 across the four approaches were: +17.2% (2018-2019 average number of deaths), +9.5% (five-year average age-standardized rates), +15.2% (SARIMA), and +15.7% (GEE). For circulatory diseases (strong pre-pandemic decreasing trend), estimates were +7.1%, -4.4%, +8.4%, and +7.2%, respectively. Cancer mortality showed no relevant variations (ranging from -1.6% to -0.1%), except for the simple comparison of age-standardized mortality rates (-5.5%). The neurologic/mental disorders (with a pre-pandemic growing trend) estimated excess corresponded to +4.0%/+5.1% based on the first two approaches, while no major change could be detected based on the SARIMA and GEE models (-1.3%/+0.3%). The magnitude of excess mortality varied largely based on the methods applied to forecast mortality figures. The comparison with average age-standardized mortality rates in the previous five years diverged from the other approaches due to the lack of control over pre-existing trends. Differences across other methods were more limited, with GEE models probably representing the most versatile option.

Veneto Region dementia-related mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: multiple causes of death and time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Older individuals with dementia have been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a lack of in-depth evaluation of mortality trends using both the underlying cause of death (UCOD) and the multiple causes of death (MCOD) approaches. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dementia-related deaths considering comorbidities and the place of death. METHODS: This retrospective, population-based study was conducted in Veneto, Italy. All the death certificates of individuals aged ≥65 years issued from 2008 to 2020 were analyzed for dementia-related mortality using age-standardized sex-stratified rates of dementia as UCOD and MCOD. Excess in monthly dementia-related mortality in 2020 was estimated by applying Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. RESULTS: Overall, 70 301 death certificates reported dementia (MCOD proportional mortality: 12.9%), and 37 604 cases identified it as UCOD (proportional mortality: 6.9%). In 2020, the MCOD proportional mortality increased to 14.3% whereas that of UCOD remained static (7.0%). Compared to the SARIMA prediction, MCOD increased by 15.5% in males and 18.3% in females in 2020. Compared to the 2018-19 average, deaths in nursing homes increased by 32% in 2020, at home by 26% and in hospitals by 12%. CONCLUSIONS: An increase in dementia-related mortality during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic could only be detected using the MCOD approach. MCOD proved to be more robust, and hence, should be included in future analyses. Nursing homes appeared to be the most critical setting which should guide establishing protective measures for similar situations.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Italian population-based cancer screening activities and test coverage: Results from national cross-sectional repeated surveys in 2020.

Background: In Italy, regions have the mandate to implement population-based screening programs for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer. From March to May 2020, a severe lockdown was imposed due to the COVID-19 pandemic by the Italian Ministry of Health, with the suspension of screening programs. This paper describes the impact of the pandemic on Italian screening activities and test coverage in 2020 overall and by socioeconomic characteristics. Methods: The regional number of subjects invited and of screening tests performed in 2020 were compared with those in 2019. Invitation and examination coverage were also calculated. PASSI surveillance system, through telephone interviews, collects information about screening test uptake by test provider (public screening and private opportunistic). Test coverage and test uptake in the last year were computed by educational attainment, perceived economic difficulties, and citizenship. Results: A reduction of subjects invited and tests performed, with differences between periods and geographical macro areas, was observed in 2020 vs. 2019. The reduction in examination coverage was larger than that in invitation coverage for all screening programs. From the second half of 2020, the trend for test coverage showed a decrease in all the macro areas for all the screening programs. Compared with the pre-pandemic period, there was a greater difference according to the level of education in the odds of having had a test last year vs. never having been screened or not being up to date with screening tests. Conclusions: The lockdown and the ongoing COVID-19 emergency caused an important delay in screening activities. This increased the preexisting individual and geographical inequalities in access. The opportunistic screening did not mitigate the impact of the pandemic. Funding: This study was partially supported by Italian Ministry of Health - Ricerca Corrente Annual Program 2023 and by the Emilian Region DGR 839/22.

Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection in cancer versus non-cancer-patients: A population-based study in northeastern Italy.

INTRODUCTION: This study assesses the risk of infection and clinical outcomes in a large consecutive population of cancer and non-cancer patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 status. METHODS: Study patients underwent SARS-CoV-2 molecular-testing between 22 February 2020 and 31 July 2020, and were found infected (CoV2+ve) or uninfected. History of malignancy was obtained from regional population-based cancer registries. Cancer-patients were distinguished by time between cancer diagnosis and SARS-CoV-2 testing (<12/⩾12 months). Comorbidities, hospitalization, and death at 15 September 2020 were retrieved from regional population-based databases. The impact of cancer history on SARS-CoV-2 infection and clinical outcomes was calculated by fitting a multivariable logistic regression model, adjusting for sex, age, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Among 552,362 individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2, 55,206 (10.0%) were cancer-patients and 22,564 (4.1%) tested CoV2+ve. Irrespective of time since cancer diagnosis, SARS-CoV-2 infection was significantly lower among cancer patients (1,787; 3.2%) than non-cancer individuals (20,777; 4.2% - Odds Ratio (OR)=0.60; 0.57-0.63). CoV2+ve cancer-patients were older than non-cancer individuals (median age: 77 versus 57 years; p<0.0001), were more frequently men and with comorbidities. Hospitalizations (39.9% versus 22.5%; OR=1.61; 1.44-1.80) and deaths (24.3% versus 9.7%; OR=1.51; 1.32-1.72) were more frequent in cancer-patients. CoV2+ve cancer-patients were at higher risk of death (lung OR=2.90; 1.58-5.24, blood OR=2.73; 1.88-3.93, breast OR=1.77; 1.32-2.35). CONCLUSIONS: The risks of hospitalization and death are significantly higher in CoV2+ve individuals with past or present cancer (particularly malignancies of the lung, hematologic or breast) than in those with no history of cancer.

[Impact of COVID-19 on the immigrant population in the Veneto Region (Northern Italy), by geographical area of origin]. / Impatto del COVID-19 nella popolazione immigrata in Veneto, per area geografica di provenienza.

OBJECTIVES: to examine the differences in SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization rates among migrant populations in Veneto Region (Northern Italy), according to the geographic area of origin. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: all residents in Veneto Region aged <65 years were included in the analyses. All subjects infected by SARS-CoV-2 and hospitalized for COVID-19 were identified by means of the regional biosurveillance system. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: age- and gender-specific infection and hospitalization rates were stratified by geographic area of origin and were estimated using the number of incident cases over the resident population in Veneto on 01.01.2021. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) for infection and hospitalization rates were estimated using a Poisson model, adjusted for age and gender, among migrants compared to Italians. RESULTS: compared to Italians, SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were significantly higher among migrants from Central and South America and Central and South Asia, lower among those from North Africa and High-Income Countries (HIC), and were approximately halved for those coming from Other Asian Countries (mainly represented by China). Hospitalization rates were significantly higher for all migrant populations when compared to Italians, with the exception of those coming from HIC. Neither age nor gender seemed to modify the association of the geographic area of origin with SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization rates. IRR for SARS-CoV-2 infection of migrants compared to Italians showed how migrants from Other Asian Countries had the lowest infection rates (-53%), followed by people from HIC (-25%), North Africa (-21%), and Eastern Europe (-10%). Higher infection rates were present for Central and South America and Central and South Asia (+17% and +10, respectively). Hospitalization rates were especially high among migrants from Central and South Asia, Africa, and Central and South America, ranging from 1.84 to 3.14 times those observed for Italians. CONCLUSIONS: a significant heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization rates of migrant populations from different geographic areas of origin were observed. The significantly lower incidence rate ratio for infections, compared to that observed for hospitalizations, is suggestive of a possible under-diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection among migrant populations. Public health efforts should be targeted at increasing support among migrants to contrast the spread of the pandemic by potentiating vaccination campaigns, contact tracing, and COVID-19 diagnostic tests.

[The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Italian and foreign population in the various phases: the results of an interregional multicentre project]. / L'impatto della pandemia di COVID-19 nella popolazione italiana e straniera residente nelle diverse fasi: i risultati di un progetto multicentrico inter-regionale.

OBJECTIVES: to analyze the difference of the SARS-CoV-2 infection impact between Italian and foreigner subjects, evaluating the trend of infections and access to diagnostic tests (molecular or antigenic swabs for the detection of SARS- CoV-2) in the two different populations, inducing the detection of new positive cases in the population. DESIGN: retrospective population study for the period February 2020-June 2021. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Italian and foreign resident population on 1st January of the years 2020 and 2021 in the Regions participating to the project: Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna (Northern Italy), Tuscany, Lazio (Central Italy), and Sicily (Southern Italy). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: in the two populations, for every week and aggregated by macropandemic period were calculated: • the test rate (people tested on the population); • the swab positivity rate (positive subjects on those who are tested); • the new positives (positive subjects on study population); • the percentage of foreigners among the new positive cases. The ratio of the value of the indicators in the foreign and Italian populations (with 95% confidence interval) was calculated to evaluate the association between nationality (Italian vs not Italian) and outcome. The analyses were conducted at the regional level and at pool level. RESULTS: the trend of new positives by nationality (Italian vs not Italian) has a similar tendency in the different pandemic waves. However, the incidence of new positives during pandemic waves among foreigners is lower than in Italians, while it tends to increase during intermediate periods. Except for the summer periods, foreigners are less tested than Italians, but the percentage of new positives out of the total of new ones tested is higher among foreigners compared to Italians. The relative weight of new positives among foreigners tends to increase in periods with the greatest risk of inflow of SARS-CoV-2 for foreigners. CONCLUSIONS: the epidemic trends in the two populations are similar, although foreigners tend to show lower incidence values, probably in part because they are tested less frequently. Furthermore, in foreigners compared to Italians, there is a greater risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially in periods of relaxation of containment Coronavirus measures, reopening of national borders, production and commercial activities.

[Mortality and impact of COVID-19 by citizenship in seven Italian Regions from the beginning of the pandemic to mid-July 2021]. / Mortalità per COVID-19 nella popolazione immigrata in sette Regioni italiane da inizio pandemia a metà luglio 2021.

OBJECTIVES: to quantify the variability of COVID-19 mortality from the beginning of the pandemic to mid-July 2021, in relation to the immigrant status and by Region and period. DESIGN: observational incidence study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the study population consists of the residents at the beginning of 2020 in seven Regions (Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Lazio, Sicily) aged <=74 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: absolute frequency of deaths occurred in subjects who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, crude and standardized rates (standard: Italian population at the beginning of 2020), and mortality rates ratios (obtained using Poisson models), by immigrant status and stratified by gender, Region of residence, and period. The study period was divided into 5 subperiods: 22.02.2020-25.05.2020, 26.05.2020-02.10.2020, 03.10.2020-26.02.2021, 27.02.2021-16.07.2021. RESULTS: the study includes more than one half of the Italian population and most of the immigrants residing in the country, who are younger than Italians and experienced fewer COVID-19 deaths. Deaths among those who tested positive varied greatly between Regions and periods; standardized rates showed considerable increases over time among immigrants. In terms of rate ratios, there were excesses among immigrant males in the third period (MRR: 1.46; 95%CI 1.30-1.65) and in the fourth period (MRR: 1.55; 95%CI 1, 34-1.81). Among immigrant females, there is an indication of lower risk in the third period (MRR: 0.79; 95%CI 0.65-0.97) and of greater risk in the fourth period (MRR: 1. 46; 95%CI 1.21-1.77). Finally, the effect is modified by the Region of residence, both in the third and in the fourth period for males and only in the fourth period for females. CONCLUSIONS: the risk of premature mortality due to COVID-19 is linked to immigrant status and with an intensity that varies by gender, Region, and period. More accessible tools for prevention, diagnosis and early healthcare can support immigrant communities in managing the risk factors linked to the spread of infections and, in particular, counteract their evolution into more severe disease outcomes.

Cancer screening programmes in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic: an update of a nationwide survey on activity volumes and delayed diagnoses.

INTRODUCTION: In Italy, regional governments are in charge of implementing cervical, breast and colorectal cancer screening programmes. The 2020 Coronavirus pandemic led to a national lockdown and the temporary suspension of several non-urgent healthcare activities, including cancer screening. This paper aims to describe the results of a national survey carried out by the National Centre for Screening Monitoring (ONS) on cervical, breast and colorectal cancer screening activities in 2020. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A national survey was conducted by ONS in 2020 to assess: the number of screening invitations by Region; the volumes of screening tests and the attitude to attend the screening programme compared to 2019; the number of delayed diagnoses of malignant or pre-malignant lesions caused by the slowing down of screening programmes, based on the average Region-specific screening detection rate for cervical, breast and colorectal cancers. RESULTS: Screening tests for breast, colorectal and cervical cancer decreased by 37.6%, 45.5% and 43.4% in 2020 compared with 2019. In 2020 the estimated numbers of undiagnosed lesions are: 3,324 breast cancers, 1,299 colorectal cancers, 7,474 colorectal advanced adenomas and 2,782 CIN2 or more severe cervical lesions. Participation in cancer screening programmes decreased by 15%, 15% and 20%, for cervical, breast and CRC screening, respectively. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: An urgent call to action is needed to prevent further delays and to limit the impact of the pandemic on cancer diagnosis and prevention.

Impact of vaccination on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection in north-east Italy nursing homes. A propensity score and risk analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the Veneto Region, 421,000 coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) cases and 11,000 deaths have been reported since 21 February 2020. The pandemic spread particularly in nursing homes (NH). OBJECTIVE: This study estimated the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection among NH residents, focusing on the risk of hospitalisation and death due to COVID-19 compared with the general older population. It also provided evidence of risk changes over time. METHODS: Older people, resident in Veneto, were enrolled from the regional registry of the population. We collected also information about demographic characteristics, chronic diseases, COVID-19 positivity, NH institutionalization, hospitalisation and date of death. Patients were assigned to NH or non-NH residents groups through a propensity score 1:1 matching. The follow-up period was defined as 21 February 2020 - 3 May 2021 and then divided into three waves. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence interval were estimated by using Poisson models with robust estimation of variance. RESULTS: NH residents showed a higher risk of COVID-19 infection (RR = 6.28; 6.03-6.54), hospitalisation for COVID-19 (RR = 2.20; 2.05-2.36) and death with COVID-19 (RR = 6.07; 5.58-6.61). CONCLUSION: NH residents shared common spaces with other patients and healthcare professionals and were more exposed to infections. Nonetheless, in Italy from late December 2020 to May 2021, 95% of NH residents and their healthcare professionals received at least one vaccine dose and RRs for all outcomes decreased in NH.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Study.

AIM: In a consecutive series of cancer patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, this retrospective population-based study investigates the risks of viral infection and death. METHODS: Malignancies were distinguished as incident or prevalent (active or inactive). Cancer management and vital status were retrieved from institutional regional databases. Comorbidities were recorded, based on Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACG). Six Resource Utilization Bands (RUBs) were also considered. Independent risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and death were identified using multivariable logistic regression, considering sex, age, comorbidities and RUBs, cancer status (active versus prevalent), primary cancer site, and treatments (chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy). RESULTS: Among 34,929 cancer patients, 1,090 (3.1%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection (CoV2+ve). The risk of infection was associated with age (OR per 1-year increase=1.012; 95%CI=1.007-1.017), prevalent-inactive disease, hematologic malignancies (OR=1.33; 95%CI=1.03-1.72) and RUB (OR per 1-level increase=1.14; 95%CI=1.05-1.24). Among CoV2+ve cancer patients, the risk of death was doubled for males, and increased with age (OR per 1-year increase=1.07; 95%CI=1.06-1.09) and comorbidities (renal [OR=3.18; 95%CI=1.58-6.49], hematological [OR=3.08; 95%CI=1.49-6.50], respiratory [OR=2.87; 95%CI=1.61-5.14], endocrine [OR=2.09; 95%CI=1.25-3.51]). Lung and blood malignancies raised the mortality risk (OR=3.55; 95%CI=1.56-8.33, and OR=1.81; 95%CI=1.01-3.25 respectively). Incident or prevalent-active disease and recent chemotherapy and radiotherapy (OR=4.34; 95%CI=1.85-10.50) increased the risk of death. CONCLUSION: In a large cohort of cancer patients, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection was higher for those with inactive disease than in incident or prevalent-active cases. Among CoV2+ve cancer patients, active malignancies and recent multimodal therapy both significantly raised the risk of death, which increased particularly for lung cancer.

A Retrospective Cohort Study of Young Women Spontaneously Choosing to Be Vaccinated against HPV: Outcomes from Their First Cervical Cancer Screening Test.

BACKGROUND: Efficacy for cervical cancer prevention of opportunistic HPV vaccination in post-pubertal girls is lower than in 11-year-olds. METHODS: Women born between 1986 and 1992 vaccinated at 15-25 years of age (at least one dose of 4-valent HPV vaccine) and screened at 24-27 years of age were included. Frequency of opportunistic vaccination, overall and by birth cohort, was calculated; screening outcomes were compared between vaccinated and unvaccinated women. RESULTS: Overall, 4718 (4.9%) HPV-vaccinated, and 91,512 unvaccinated, women were studied. The frequency of vaccination increased by birth cohort, ranging between 1.8% and 9.8%; age at vaccination decreased progressively by birth cohort (p < 0.0001). Participation in screening was 60.8% among vaccinated, and 56.6% among unvaccinated, women (p < 0.0001). Detection rates (DR) for high-grade lesions were lower in vaccinated women (2.11‰ vs. 3.85‰ in unvaccinated, for CIN3+, p = 0.24; 0.0‰ vs. 0.22‰ for cancer). The DR of CIN3+ increased with age at vaccination, scoring respectively 0.0‰, 0.83‰, and 4.68‰ for women vaccinated when they were 15-16, 17-20, and 21-25 years old (p = 0.17). CONCLUSIONS: In comparison to unvaccinated women, higher compliance with cervical cancer screening invitation and lower CIN3+ DR among vaccinated women was observed. Age at vaccination was inversely correlated to vaccination efficacy.

Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Inhibitors and Risk of Death in Patients Hospitalised with COVID-19: A Retrospective Italian Cohort Study of 43,000 Patients.

INTRODUCTION: The epidemic due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has been spreading globally, raising increasing concerns. There are several controversial hypotheses on the potentially harmful or beneficial effects of antihypertensive drugs acting on the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Furthermore, there is accumulating evidence, based on several observational studies, that angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) do not increase the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection. On the other hand, conflicting findings regarding the role of ACEIs/ARBs as prognosis modifiers in COVID-19 hospitalised patients have been reported. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this large-scale, retrospective cohort study was to investigate whether prior exposure to ACEIs and/or ARBs was associated with all-cause mortality among over 40,000 hospitalised COVID-19 patients compared with calcium channel blockers (CCBs), a potential therapeutic alternative. METHODS: This study was conducted using COVID-19 registries linked to claims databases from Lombardy, Veneto and Reggio Emilia (overall, 25% of Italian population). Overall, 42,926 patients hospitalised between 21 February and 21 April 2020 with a diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by real-time polymerase chain reaction tests were included in this study. All-cause mortality occurring in or out of hospital, as reported in the COVID-19 registry, was estimated. Using Cox models, adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality (along with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were estimated separately for ACEIs/ARBs and other antihypertensives versus CCBs and non-use. RESULTS: Overall, 11,205 in- and out-of-hospital deaths occurred over a median of 24 days of follow-up after hospital admission due to COVID-19. Compared with CCBs, adjusted analyses showed no difference in the risk of death among ACEI (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.89-1.06) or ARB (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.89-1.06) users. When non-use of antihypertensives was considered as a comparator, a modest statistically significant increase in mortality risk was observed for any antihypertensive use. However, when restricting to drugs with antihypertensive indications only, these marginal increases disappeared. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses confirmed our main findings. CONCLUSIONS: ACEI/ARB use is not associated with either an increased or decreased risk of all-cause mortality, compared with CCB use, in the largest cohort of hospitalised COVID-19 patients exposed to these drugs studied to date. The use of these drugs therefore does not affect the prognosis of COVID-19. This finding strengthens recommendations of international regulatory agencies about not withdrawing/switching ACEI/ARB treatments to modify COVID-19 prognosis.

[Oncological organized screening programmes in the COVID-19 era: an Italian survey on accrued delays, reboot velocity, and diagnostic delay estimates]. / Ritardi maturati dai programmi di screening oncologici ai tempi del COVID-19 in Italia, velocità della ripartenza e stima dei possibili ritardi diagnostici.

OBJECTIVES: to describe the course of Italian organized cancer screening programmes during the COVID-19 emergency; to provide estimates of the diagnosis of malignant or pre-malignant lesions that will face a diagnostic delay due to the slowing down of screening activities. DESIGN: quantitative survey of aggregated data for each Region and overall for Italy relating to screening tests carried out in the period January-May 2020 compared to those of the same period of 2019; estimate of diagnostic delays starting from the calculation of the average detection rate of the last 3 years available (specific by Region). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Italian mass screening programmes. Data on the tests carried out in the target population of the breast (women 50-69 years old), cervix (women 25-64 years old), and colorectal (women and men 50-69 years old) cancer screening. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the cumulative delay (in absolute numbers and as a percentage) in the period January-May 2020 compared to the same period of 2019, by Region; the difference of screening tests (in absolute number and in percentage) performed in May 2020 compared to May 2019; the estimate of the fewer lesions diagnosed in 2020 compared with 2019 with relative 95% confidence intervals (95%CI); the 'standard months' of delay (proportion of fewer tests carried out from January to May 2020 for the corresponding number of months). RESULTS: 20 Regions out of 21 participated. In the period January-May 2020, the fewer screening tests performed in comparison with the same period of 2019 were: 472,389 (equal to 53.8%) with an average delay of standard months of 2.7 for mammography screening; 585,287 (equal to 54.9%) with an average delay of standard months of 2.7 for colorectal screening; 371,273 (equal to 55.3%) with an average delay of 2.8 standard months for cervical screening. The estimated number of undiagnosed lesions is 2,201 (95%CI 2,173-2,220) breast cancers; 645 (95%CI 632-661) colorectal carcinomas; 3,890 (95%CI 3,855-3,924) advanced colorectal adenomas and 1,497 (95%CI 1,413-1,586) CIN2 or more serious lesions. CONCLUSIONS: mass screenings need to be restarted as quickly as possible. In order to make up for the delay that is accumulating, it is necessary to provide for wider delivery times, greater resources, and new organizational approaches. It will also be essential to develop communication strategies suitable for promoting participation during this emergency.

Epidemiology and public health response in early phase of COVID-19 pandemic, Veneto Region, Italy, 21 February to 2 April 2020.

BackgroundVeneto was one of the Italian regions hit hardest by the early phase of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.AimThis paper describes the public health response and epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in the Veneto Region from 21 February to 2 April 2020.MethodsInformation on the public health response was collected from regional health authorities' official sources. Epidemiological data were extracted from a web-based regional surveillance system. The epidemic curve was represented by date of testing. Characteristics of hospitalised COVID-19 cases were described and compared to those never admitted to hospital. Age- and sex-stratified case-fatality ratios (CFRs) were calculated.ResultsKey elements of the regional public health response were thorough case-finding and contact tracing, home care for non-severe cases, creation of dedicated COVID-19 healthcare facilities and activation of sub-intensive care units for non-invasive ventilation. As at 2 April 2020, 91,345 individuals were tested for SARS-CoV-2 and 10,457 (11.4%) were positive. Testing and attack rates were 18.6 per 1,000 and 213.2 per 100,000 population, respectively. The epidemic peaked around 20 to 24 March, with case numbers declining thereafter. Hospitalised cases (n = 3,623; 34.6%) were older and more frequently male compared with never-hospitalised cases. The CFR was 5.6% overall, and was higher among males and people > 60 years of age.ConclusionIn the Veneto Region, the strict social distancing measures imposed by the Italian government were supported by thorough case finding and contact tracing, as well as well-defined roles for different levels of care.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Italian Veneto region: adverse outcomes in patients with cancer.

In 84,246 consecutive Italians tested for SARS-CoV-2, we examined the prevalence of cancer and clinical outcomes of viral infection. Overall, 5.7% (4,789/84,246) had previously been diagnosed with cancer and, among the SARS-CoV-2-positive (CV2+ve) patients, 7.8% had a cancer diagnosis (723/9,275). Prevalence of cancer was not associated with risk of infection (odds ratio of 0.97; 95% confidence interval of 0.89-1.06). The proportion of CV2+ve people hospitalized was higher among patients with cancer (56.6 versus 34.4% among other people), and so was the proportion of deaths (14.7% versus 4.5%). The risk of adverse outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection was significantly higher for patients with cancer versus those without, particularly for males and older people.